The upcoming visit of Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Beijing has not generated much excitement among Chinese officials. The discovery of a Chinese balloon over the United States in February caused a diplomatic freeze, and now officials from both countries are facing a significant gap in their interests and positions. Wang Yong, director of the Center for International Political Economy at Peking University, stated that the Chinese side does not expect any meaningful results from Blinken's visit and that he probably won't be very welcome. Behind China's cold reception is a newfound sense of confidence, as China has successfully hosted world leaders and mediated conflicts like the Saudi-Iran rift. Beijing has also offered to mediate the Ukraine crisis and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. With these recent successes, China is feeling more empowered and is less likely to bend to U.S. demands
According to Zhao Minghao, a professor at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, China has achieved diplomatic advancements and may perceive the current situation as favorable for negotiating with the United States.
China is still reliant on American investment and trade, despite its efforts to establish a separate world order that is not dominated by the United States. China is currently facing economic challenges including sluggish growth, record levels of youth unemployment, and shrinking foreign investment. In an attempt to improve its economic recovery, Chinese officials have been courting executives such as Bill Gates, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, Starbucks CEO Laxman Narasimhan, and Tesla and Twitter CEO Elon Musk. However, separating politics and business is difficult, as demonstrated by Sequoia Capital's decision to split its China and US operations into separate companies due to TikTok's various restrictions and bans in the United States. Additionally, recent raids on due-diligence firms operating in China have made foreign companies nervous, and a recent overhaul of the country's espionage law has foreign executives worried that normal business operations could be deemed illegal.
The Chinese government is hoping to improve its foreign trade and investment by easing ties with the United States. However, the Biden administration has made it difficult by blacklisting over 30 Chinese companies for selling U.S. technology to the Chinese military and implementing new limits on U.S. investments in China. Despite this, Chinese officials have been meeting with U.S. trade and commerce officials to improve relations. The visit of Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman paves the way for other visits by U.S. officials, such as special climate envoy John F. Kerry or Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen. Chinese officials are also looking ahead to a potential meeting between President Xi Jinping and President Biden at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in San Francisco in November.
The outcome of U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman's visit to China is uncertain, but it may signal a potential visit by China's leader to the U.S. to attend APEC if positive conditions are created. Chinese officials have not given any details of Sherman's visit, but she is expected to meet with senior Chinese officials including Foreign Minister Qin. Areas where China could compromise and collaborate include climate change, public health, and counternarcotics efforts, but continued U.S. support for Taiwan remains a critical sticking point for Beijing. Without bridging the gap on these issues, any rapprochement is unlikely.02:07 PM
